War On The Rocks Has Rocks On The Brain | The Gateway Pundit

Right here is one other article of delusional hopium courtesy of the parents at Warfare on the Rocks. HOLD, BUILD, AND STRIKE: A VISION FOR REBUILDING UKRAINE’S ADVANTAGE IN 2024 by Michael Kofman, Rob Lee and Dara Massicot is a well-written train in fantasy. They begin off with a second of readability:

This winter, Ukraine’s navy is visibly working on fumes, as recent reporting exhibits M109 Paladin artillery exterior Bakhmut receiving solely smoke shells for ammunition. Once we had been final there in November, shell starvation was widespread alongside the entrance, and the state of affairs has solely gotten worse.

However after that little bit of actuality, they veer off into the world of magical pondering:

Nonetheless, with tailor-made Western help, Ukraine may maintain in opposition to Russian forces this yr and rebuild the required benefit to conduct large-scale offensive operations in 2025, recreating one other alternative to deal Russia a battlefield defeat. . . .

Territorial management is one measure of progress towards one’s aims, however the steadiness of attrition, capability for reconstitution, protection industrial mobilization, and the flexibility to make use of power successfully at scale are extra vital determinants of long-term success. . . .

If this yr is used properly, core issues are addressed, and the precise classes are utilized from the 2023 offensive, Ukraine can take one other shot at inflicting a serious defeat on Russian forces. Nonetheless, this calls for a brand new technique, premised on three central parts: maintain, construct, and strike. Holding would require a well-prepared protection, consolidating, and rationalizing the Ukrainian armed forces’ numerous park of kit. Constructing focuses on reconstituting power high quality, coaching, and increasing protection industrial capability. Lastly, the strike component will degrade Russian benefits and create challenges for Russian forces far behind the entrance traces, as Ukraine works on rebuilding its capability to renew offensive operations. Ideally, Ukraine can take in Russian offensives whereas minimizing casualties and place itself to retake the benefit over time.

What planet are these three residing on? Beginning in mid-December 2023, Russia has unleashed a devastating barrage of missile and rocket assaults on Ukraine’s military-industrial vegetation, munition storage amenities, and infrastructure. I can excuse Michael Kofman and Dara Massicot’s ignorance — neither has expertise with precise navy operations and are quintessential analysts from the ivory fortress of political science — however how can Rob Lee, a former Marine infantry officer, signal on to one thing so imbecilic? They declare to be Russian consultants however reveal a profound ignorance about Russia’s navy and financial functionality.

I’ll make this actual easy. Ukraine doesn’t have the flexibility to implement the Warfare on the Rocks prescription. First, manpower. Even Ukrainian sources are conceding that Ukraine has suffered greater than one million casualties. The common age of the frontline troops is 43. For the maths challenged on the market (this clearly applies to Kofman, Lee and Massicot), if the typical age is 43 which means you may have a lot of 50 and 60 yr previous cannon fodder manning the trenches and bunkers. The below 40 crowd will not be flocking to the recruiting workplace in Kiev to enroll. Simply the other. They’re going to excessive lengths to keep away from being dragooned into the military. We’ve seen guys carrying disguises that make them appear like 70 yr previous males and others dressing as ladies. Not as a result of they’re transgender however as a result of the Ukrainian recruiters usually are not grabbing ladies off the road and throwing them on to the navy bus.

Let’s assume that Ukraine can by some means discover an extra 500,000 potential troopers. (They may want a minimum of that many to maintain up with Russia who added that quantity to their armed forces in 2023 and proceed to enroll new recruits on the fee of greater than 40,000 a month.) The place are they going to coach? Russia’s missile strikes through the previous month have hit some main troop areas. For instance, the strike in Kharkiv final week worn out a 200 man contingent of overseas mercenaries. Russia can and can hit each coaching middle in Ukraine, which implies the brand new Ukie recruits must be despatched to bases in Europe.

We’ve got clear proof primarily based on the Ukrainian failure within the 2023 counter-offensive of how insufficient that coaching was. And the coaching I’m speaking about is Primary Coaching. First rate Primary Coaching takes 13 weeks. Do the maths — even when Ukraine can marshall 20,000 new recruits a month and run them via Primary Coaching, Ukraine would solely have 160,000 troops educated in rudimentary abilities by the top of the yr. Ukraine failed to do this throughout 2023. What miracle drug will they be taking that permits them to coach three to 4 instances the variety of troops they assembled for the failed counter offensive?

The overwhelming majority of the Ukrainian troops despatched to assault the Surovikin traces of protection didn’t obtain Superior Particular person Coaching nor did they take part in giant unit workouts. Realizing how you can shoot, clear and preserve a fireplace arm in fight situations is an effective factor. However that doesn’t robotically translate into how you can conduct an assault on closely defended positions. And don’t inform me the Brits and Germans can deal with that coaching activity. Hell, the U.Okay. can’t even meet its personal recruitment wants. The Brits are a puny, inexperienced power missing in information of how you can perform a mixed forces assault in opposition to the Russians. Ditto for the Germans. The Wehrmacht is kaput.

The Warfare on the Rocks clown present pays lip service to Ukraine’s want for air protection, artillery, artillery rounds, tanks and armored autos, however ignores the actual world. No nation within the West has the flexibility to provide these things and ship them to Ukraine within the portions required to maintain a power within the area for the foreseeable future. The authors are significantly misplaced in La La Land after they discuss Ukraine with the ability to launch long-range missiles to hit vital infrastructure in Russia. There isn’t any different nation on the earth with an air protection system like Russia’s. Furthermore, if such assaults are launched Russia has the flexibility to launch profitable counter strikes to get rid of these threats.

The place the hell is the West going to give you a thousand tanks and armored personnel carriers? There aren’t any factories within the West churning these out. On the contrary, the West is struggling to provide 155 mm shells. The entire Warfare on the Rocks “evaluation” rests on the belief that the West’s solely concern is Ukraine. That canine gained’t hunt anymore. Israel, Yemen, Iran and China have gotten higher priorities than Ukraine.

Lastly, let’s assume that Ukraine is ready to muster a brand new military of cannon fodder to assault Russia’s closely defended traces? The place is the Ukrainian air energy? It doesn’t exist and won’t exist. If the US is ready to deploy a number of F-16s to Ukraine, they’ll meet the identical destiny that Ukraine’s now non-existent air power met. They are going to be shot down.

Let me go away you with this. It’s a report from the entrance traces by Russia’s pre-eminent warfare correspondent, Marat Khayrullin. Right here is the present actuality:

Krynki, if anybody doesn’t keep in mind, it was such a conditional bridgehead (it nonetheless exists) on our financial institution of the Dnieper, which the Ukrainians tried to promote to the West as one other success. And it was this PR marketing campaign that grew to become symbolic, as a result of for the primary time, with out even having time to correctly swing, it failed attributable to apparent senselessness. And the Ukrainians themselves and, most significantly, their Western allies themselves noticed the futility of Krynoki as a navy operation.

The story with the Krynki was so silly and wretched that it couldn’t be offered even to the Ukrainian society, which believes, as expertise exhibits, any fairy tales about victory over the Russian Federation.
And in the present day we’re seeing how this Krynok syndrome is starting to unfold throughout your complete entrance. What does this imply?

Right this moment it’s already apparent that the initiative has fully handed to our troops. However, however, the dill proceed to desperately resist. Going fully on the defensive. And probably the most urgent query now could be how lengthy the dill will be capable of maintain the entrance line.

Right here it’s fascinating to recollect the current phrases of the management of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: they are saying we’ll put together a sure Zaluzhny line, 10-15 kilometers deep in protection, and calmly withdraw there. And right here we have to perceive two factors. Firstly, on the present line of contact, the dill have already created an unprecedented advanced of protecting buildings. I’ve already given an instance that in the summertime solely within the zone of duty of my native Slavyanka close to Avdeevka, about 6 kilometers vast and as much as 10 km deep, dill dug greater than 600 various kinds of fortifications. From oporniks to pillboxes, bunkers, underground bunkers, and so forth., utilizing any benefits on the bottom.

They created one thing related alongside nearly your complete entrance line. This, by the best way, partly explains that the warfare will not be going so shortly.

To efficiently overcome such a line of fortifications, it’s essential to considerably enhance the capabilities of our military. That is what we’re doing now.

And the second level: by and huge, our troops can overcome such fortifications wherever, it’s only a matter of losses.

Right here it’s applicable to recall the years of the Nice Patriotic Warfare – for the whole liberation of Ukraine it took 15 navy operations, and the entire losses of Soviet troops amounted to a number of million folks. Throughout the Donbass operation alone (August 13-September 22, 1943), our troops misplaced about 270 thousand troopers, even supposing the entire variety of the group was simply over a million. That’s, nearly each third.

Right this moment we can’t afford such losses. So you must choose ukrov out of each gap. Particularly contemplating that the Ukrainian command behaves fully inhumanely – not counting its troopers, who’re merely overtly despatched to their deaths. And their apparent tactic is exactly to inflict on us probably the most vital losses potential, not counting their troopers. As a result of then, in keeping with the idea of the Western masters of Ukraine, this may provoke unrest in Russia, and the folks will demand the top of the Northern Army District with out reaching the primary objectives. This shall be thought of a victory for the West. I repeat, nobody cares what number of Ukrainians must be killed. And the truth that our command will not be accepting these giveaways may be very disappointing to the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the collective West as an entire.

Due to this fact, we’ll all should be affected person and wait for thus lots of the enemy’s reserves to be processed so that he’s now not in a position to cowl sure sectors of the entrance.

Talking figuratively, in the present day your complete entrance line is popping an increasing number of into conditional Krynki. The Ukrainians are stupidly sitting of their holes and attempting to by some means survive. And we proceed to destroy them with higher and higher depth.

There isn’t any level in eliminating this conditional bridgehead at the price of the lives of our fighters – the enemy is already doomed. It’s a lot wiser to only wait. Furthermore, we’ve nowhere to hurry – help to the enemy from the West is drying up, human reserves are working out. And most significantly, the collective enemy is more and more realizing the futility of resistance.