The best fits for a Juan Soto trade

There’s no larger identify on the commerce entrance than Juan Soto. The celebrity outfielder topped MLBTR’s checklist of the High 25 offseason trade candidates a number of weeks in the past. He’s one season from free company on a Padres staff that’s reportedly planning to chop payroll. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Soto for a file $33M wage for his remaining season of arbitration, which might make him the highest-paid participant on the roster.

President of baseball operations A.J. Preller has made clear the organizational desire could be to signal Soto to an extension. That appears extraordinarily unlikely. Soto declined a $440M supply from the Nationals in the summertime of 2022. The value tag ought to solely be greater now that he’s a yr and a half nearer to free company. Neither San Diego nor anybody else ought to count on to maintain Soto from the open market.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic wrote yesterday {that a} commerce appears probably primarily based on the Friars’ payroll and roster outlook. San Diego is right down to Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish as locks for a spot within the rotation. They might use slightly extra depth on the place participant facet. No transfer would create extra short-term payroll room than a Soto commerce.

It’s exhausting to ascertain the Padres dealing him throughout the NL West. San Diego isn’t rebuilding. A commerce could also be financially motivated however would additionally open room for reinvestment. The Friars aren’t prone to deal Soto to the Dodgers, Diamondbacks or Giants. The Rockies aren’t buying a star for one season.

What in regards to the different 25 groups? Which of them take advantage of sense?

Notice: All payroll projections courtesy of Roster Useful resource. Groups are listed alphabetically inside every tier.

Greatest Matches

• Blue Jays: GM Ross Atkins has spoken of a need so as to add a number of hitters. They’re within the combine on Shohei Ohtani however might flip to the commerce market if the two-way star indicators elsewhere. The Jays might slide Daulton Varsho to heart area to plug Soto into left. They’re round $24M shy of subsequent yr’s base luxurious tax threshold. Buying Soto would push them into CBT territory, which they have been keen to do that previous season.
• Cubs: The Cubs are additionally in on Ohtani. Signing the defending AL MVP would take them out of the combination for Soto. In the event that they don’t get Ohtani, taking a swing for Soto to rotate by the nook outfield and DH spots alongside Seiya Suzuki and Ian Happ is sensible. Chicago is a borderline playoff staff as issues stand. They undertaking $50M beneath the tax threshold. They’re inside $7M of this yr’s Opening Day payroll however round $25M south of their franchise-high mark from 2019.
• Mariners: Seattle doesn’t seem as concerned on Ohtani as a few of the different groups on this tier. Maybe that’s an indicator that they’re not occupied with any participant on a large wage, as they undertaking round $4M beneath this yr’s season-opening spending degree. They’re round $25M away from their franchise-record Opening Day payroll, although, and one season of Soto wouldn’t include the sort of long-term draw back from which Seattle has shied away in free company. The Mariners want offense to push them excessive and will improve in both nook outfield spot, the place Jarred Kelenic and Dominic Canzone undertaking as the highest inside choices.
• Rangers: The defending World Collection winners have a robust beginning outfield of Evan Carter, Leody Taveras and Adolis García. Main DH Mitch Garver reached free company, opening a spot in the course of the lineup. It’s in all probability too quickly to depend on final yr’s #4 total choose Wyatt Langford, who solely has 17 video games of higher minors expertise. Including Soto to an already stellar offense for a season as they go for a repeat makes loads of sense. They already undertaking above this yr’s Opening Day payroll however determine to push spending greater on the heels of a championship. Texas initiatives round $18M south of the bottom luxurious tax threshold; they might add Soto with out paying particularly onerous penalties.
• Purple Sox: DH Justin Turner hit free company. Proper fielder Alex Verdugo is an annual offseason commerce candidate. A nook outfield tandem of Verdugo and Masataka Yoshida isn’t disastrous, nevertheless it’s definitely not going to face in the best way of a participant like Soto. Coming off consecutive 78-84 seasons, maybe the Sox don’t really feel they’re completely positioned to strike for this sort of rental participant. They’re round $52M shy of the bottom luxurious threshold, although, and buying Soto would put them proper again within the hunt within the AL East.
• Yankees: GM Brian Cashman is overtly looking for a number of outfielders, ideally ones who hit from the left facet. The Yankees undertaking for a payroll that sits round $40M south of their 2023 mark. A Soto acquisition would carry them to the border of the third tier of luxurious tax penalization. That’d be a priority for a lot of groups however is a line the Yankees shouldn’t have any qualms about passing. So long as New York considers itself a respectable contender in 2024 — including Soto would make that much more reasonable — there aren’t many cleaner suits.

Longer Pictures

• Angels: The Halos have made clear they’re not going to rebuild even when Ohtani walks. They’ve been aggressive in buying and selling for gamers deep into their arbitration seasons and would have the payroll capability to accommodate Soto’s wage in the event that they don’t retain Ohtani. They’ve stripped down the farm system in ill-fated strikes to extend their odds of competing within the quick time period, nonetheless. Even when proprietor Arte Moreno desires so as to add a giant identify to compensate for a possible Ohtani departure, buying Soto appears too short-sighted.
• Braves: Atlanta has a gap in left area after declining their choice on Eddie Rosario. The Braves already undertaking for a franchise-record payroll and have an elite lineup regardless of the left area query. Bringing in a beginning pitcher feels just like the safer guess.
• Mets: Few groups have as bleak a nook outfield image because the Mets. Starling Marte had a horrible season. DJ Stewart performed effectively down the stretch, however he’s a 30-year-old who wasn’t on a 40-man roster as just lately as this previous July. They’re going to usher in some sort of outfield assist. Buying and selling for Soto could be a daring play for a staff that has hinted at 2025 as its extra reasonable competition window coming off a 75-87 season. They might search for extra of a stopgap acquisition and make a much bigger run at Soto when he hits free company subsequent November.
• Orioles: Pitching is the larger concern for Baltimore, who’ve Austin Hays, Anthony Santander and Ryan Mountcastle within the nook outfield/DH combine. The O’s nonetheless have an elite farm system that ostensibly opens the likelihood for a luxurious purchase, notably in the event that they offloaded Santander’s $12.7M projected wage (both as a lesser piece of a Soto return or in a separate commerce). This isn’t the sort of transfer the O’s have made beneath GM Mike Elias, nonetheless.
• Phillies: Philadelphia has Kyle Schwarber, Nick Castellanos and Bryce Harper dealing with the mixture of first base, the nook outfield and designated hitter. They might kick Schwarber to a full-time DH function and set up Soto within the nook reverse Castellanos to flank Brandon Marsh in heart area. The offense isn’t essentially a necessity for the Phils, however president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has by no means shied away from the possibility to usher in a star. This is likely to be a neater match if the Phils might first offload Castellanos in a separate commerce (though he wouldn’t maintain any attraction to San Diego as a part of a return for Soto).

Payroll Questions

• Astros
• Brewers
• Guardians
• Marlins
• Pirates
• Rays
• Twins

Whereas a $33M wage remains to be effectively beneath the market worth for one yr of Soto’s companies, none of those groups is prone to take it on. Milwaukee, Cleveland, Miami, Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay are among the many decrease spenders in MLB. Houston arguably has a necessity in left area, however GM Dana Brown has downplayed their need for outfield assist and advised they’re working with out a ton of payroll room. Minnesota is scaling again payroll and is already proper round its reported goal space.

Different Priorities

Soto would clearly make any staff higher. But nobody on this group has the sort of pressing want for nook outfield assist that makes them prone to supply sufficient younger expertise to beat what extra determined groups might placed on the desk.

The Cardinals might ostensibly commerce Tyler O’Neill and goal Soto to play the nook outfield alongside Jordan Walker. They’re already finally yr’s spending degree, although, and it’s debatable whether or not they’re adequate to push to this extent for a rental. Cincinnati is targeted on beginning pitching and appears unlikely to fulfill the sort of asking worth for Soto, whom they’d haven’t any hope of re-signing subsequent offseason. Detroit introduced in Mark Canha this offseason to affix Riley Greene and Kerry Carpenter within the nook outfield/DH combine. They’re too fringy of a contender to make this sort of play.

Unsuitable Aggressive Timeline

• A’s
• Nationals
• Royals
• White Sox

The A’s is likely to be the one of those groups that’s overtly going into 2024 with none hope of competing. Nobody on this tier has a adequate roster to contemplate themselves one participant away from competition, nonetheless. Parting with a number of high-end prospects for a rental doesn’t make sense, even when every of Washington, Kansas Metropolis and Chicago will in all probability make smaller strikes of the “win-now” selection this winter.