Ozempic and Mounjaro are just the start of an obesity drug arms race

There’s now an everyday deluge of latest research displaying the potential widespread well being advantages of GLP-1s, the category of medicine that encompasses diabetes and weight problems remedies like Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy and Ozempic (which include the energetic ingredient semaglutide) and Eli Lilly’s Zepbound and Mounjaro (energetic ingredient tirzepatide). From weight reduction in overweight sufferers, to protecting heart and cardiovascular health outcomes, to lowering blood pressure, combating fatty liver disease, and probably even offering a boost to the brain that can gird against mental health and neurological conditions equivalent to Alzheimer’s illness, nervousness, bipolar dysfunction, and melancholy, early scientific and educational research counsel GLP-1s and associated drug courses might remodel the well being of hundreds of thousands–and Novo and Lilly aren’t the one gamers jockeying for a plum perch on this explosive pharmaceutical area.

The 2 drug giants have dominated the dialog–and market–thus far as pioneers within the house. Mounjaro and Zepbound raked in more than $5.3 billion in 2023 revenues for Eli Lilly whereas Ozempic and Wegovy landed $18.4 billion in Novo sales last year–and the load loss-specific Zepbound was solely available on the market for the ultimate quarter of 2023. However the two drug giants that had been first out of the gate with such merchandise realistically can’t be the one youngsters on this organic block given the market’s sheer scope and evolving science on various kinds of GLP-1 class medicine, based on specialists.

“Proper now, Lilly and Novo are within the lead with Wegovvy and Zepound authorised and taking on market share. However I wouldn’t characterize it as simply Lilly versus Novo as a result of the market is so large you really need each gamers to fulfill demand,” Evan Seigerman, managing director and senior analysis analyst overlaying biotech and prescribed drugs at BMO Capital Markets, tells Quick Firm.

“We hear lots about manufacturing, form of, bottlenecks. I do know there are plenty of different gamers form of making an attempt to determine their angle in, and I feel that you simply want one thing totally different than only a once-weekly GLP-1, or perhaps a once-weekly twin agonist like tirzepatide.” (Eli Lilly’s tirzepatide is one thing referred to as a GLP-1 twin agonist, scientifically, that targets another type of receptor protein on top of GLP-1 whereas Novo Nordisk’s semaglutide targets solely GLP-1). 

The potential market dimension for weight problems and the various sorts of well being situations linked to it numbers within the tens of hundreds of thousands within the U.S. alone. In an in depth BMO Capital Markets report from final September, Seigerman and his analysis group projected the dimensions of the weight problems drug market to balloon to $70 billion in simply over a decade. And that was earlier than Lilly’s Zepbound FDA approval last November. That model of tirzepatide is authorised for continual weight administration in weight problems sufferers particularly whereas Mounjaro is authorised for sort 2 diabetes (much like the distinction between Novo’s weight reduction semaglutide formulation versus its diabetes-indicated Ozempic). Different analysts equivalent to researchers from JPMorgan predict the global market for obesity drugs could reach $71 billion by 2032. There have been 46.5 million U.S. prescriptions distributed for GLP-1 class medicine for diabetes and weight problems in 2023 alone, based on knowledge the intelligence agency IQVIA emailed to Quick Firm.

It’s no shock that assembly the hovering demand and even better market potential for these medicines isn’t doable for 2 corporations alone. The push for extra sufferers, manufacturing backlogs, and rivals who wish to develop the subsequent generations of GLP-1 merchandise that may be much more efficient, or extra handy, or have extra far-reaching makes use of, considerably expands the profitable GLP-1 taking part in area. 

The mix of useful resource constraints and thirst for newer, extra helpful merchandise is more likely to hold this business arms race going for years to come back. “You want one thing that: a) has a greater tolerability profile; b) higher weight reduction; c) much less frequent dosing; and d) probably an oral capsule GLP-1 formulation slightly than an injection. I feel that’s the place we’re going, provide you with higher variations of what we’ve,” says BMO’s Seigerman. He factors to lesser recognized corporations such as Viking Therapeutics, which is testing an experimental oral GLP-1 for weight problems and metabolic problems, and Construction Therapeutics, which also has a GLP-1 oral pill in-development that’s proven early promise in slashing blood sugar and slicing weight.

Lilly and Novo are forging forward with their very own next-gen GLP-1 efforts, too. “Lily’s not stopping at tirzepatide, in addition they have orforglipron which an oral GLP-1, and retatrutide or ‘Triple G’ as they name it which is a triple agonist,” mentioned Seigerman. “And, you already know, Novo’s doing the identical with a few of their mixtures as a result of the objective in the end is best, extra sustained weight reduction, higher high quality of weight reduction, balancing weight reduction with out inflicting muscle mass loss.”

There are 486 active studies of GLP-1 drugs and their results on varied forms of sufferers and ailments at the moment listed within the federal ClinicalTrials.gov database.