Mookie Betts, not Ronald Acuña Jr., is the NL MVP

We’d all be higher off if each MVP award was merely renamed, “Participant Of The Yr,” as it will save us a really annoying and tiresome debate about what “priceless” means. It will get doubly so in baseball, the place we nonetheless haven’t fairly escaped what numbers individuals ought to take note of, and what’s overblown, and what the worth of both of them is. That can positively come into play on this 12 months’s NL MVP debate. It’s been a foregone conclusion that Ronald Acuña Jr., armed with a never-before-seen accomplishment, will stroll with the award. The issue is, he hasn’t been the most effective participant within the Nationwide League. Mookie Betts is.

This harkens again a bit of to 2012, when Miguel Cabrera gained the Triple Crown, and but Mike Trout ought to have gained the MVP. It’s actually laborious to get previous the flash of “TRIPLE CROWN,” and on condition that it hadn’t been executed in 45 years, it was straightforward to imagine that Cabrera was the MVP. The Triple Crown was so tangible. It caught out. However Trout was mainly the identical offensive participant by general metrics (167 wRC+ to Cabrera’s 166, .409 wOBA to Cabrera’s .417) whereas additionally being a difference-making centerfielder. Regardless of the definition of “worth” to varied individuals, clearly Trout carried extra of it. He simply didn’t have a shiny label to all of it like Cabrera did.

We’re operating it again this 12 months within the NL. Acuña Jr. will seemingly end the season with 30 homers and 70 steals — one thing that’s by no means been executed. It’s an accomplishment that goes on any marquee, for positive. It speaks to a mixture of abilities which might be uncommon to seek out in a single participant, a totality of baseball that solely moderately equates to an MVP award. The connection is straightforward to make. It makes anybody suppose that Acuña Jr. can beat a workforce in quite a lot of methods.

Besides by every other metric, Betts has been the higher participant. By each fWAR and bWAR, he’s been higher. By wRC+ he’s been higher. By wOBA he’s been higher. On the plate, Betts has merely executed greater than Acuña Jr. He simply doesn’t have the headlining, statistical accomplishment that Acuña Jr. could have.

The kicker, and ought to be weighted greater than it most likely will, is that Betts has executed it not solely whereas taking part in three totally different positions, and taking part in two of them properly, however taking part in two positions he hadn’t performed frequently within the Majors ever earlier than. Earlier than this season, Betts had logged 228 innings at second base in 9 MLB seasons. He’s performed 330 there this 12 months. He had by no means performed quick in any respect within the Majors, and has moonlighted there at instances this season. And he’s nonetheless a plus proper fielder. The innings at quick have been about as wonky as you’d anticipate, however he’s been a plus defender within the different two spots. Acuña Jr., in the meantime, has been a woeful proper fielder, and a proper fielder solely. He’s at -7 Outs Above Common in keeping with Statcast and -8.9 Defensive Runs Saved in keeping with FanGraphs. Betts isn’t the defensive overlord he as soon as was, however he’s mainly performed about even at second and in proper.

If you wish to get into the murky depths of what “worth” to their respective groups constitutes, and you actually shouldn’t as a result of the award ought to simply be concerning the gamers themselves, the Dodgers have wanted Betts to do what he’s executed greater than Atlanta has wanted Acuña Jr. Atlanta has top-of-the-line pitching staffs in baseball, rating third in ERA. The Dodgers are sixteenth and have had accidents all via their rotation. Atlanta is stocked with a lineup filled with killers, with 9 gamers having a wRC+ over 110. The Dodgers are hardly skint, with six of their very own, however JD Martinez, Will Smith, and Max Muncy have all missed time and so they’ve nonetheless had their wonky pitching to beat. Betts has needed to do extra carrying, let’s consider.

Perhaps it’s Dodgers fatigue, although Atlanta fatigue gained’t be too far off given their streak of excellence. Principally we’re positive it’s simply the glitz of a uncommon statistical accomplishment. However by any measure, and particularly those that basically matter, Betts is the MVP. And it’ll additionally torture Pink Sox followers extra. Isn’t that what all of us really need?

Observe Sam on Twitter @Felsgate and on Bluesky @Felsgate.bsky.social