Bold predictions for the rest of the 2023-24 NBA season

Steph Curry famously turned the first-ever unanimous MVP again in 2015-16. Nikola Jokic will grow to be the second this season. Jokic has quite a bit working in his favor. Most significantly, he is most likely going to be a top-20 participant of all-time (possibly even higher), he is in the course of his prime, and he is having arguably his finest season (27.5 PPG, 13.1 RPG, 8.9 APG with 57.9 area purpose share). On this tempo, he would additionally reset his personal Participant Effectivity Ranking document (32.85) with a PER of 33.79. Lastly, full transparency voting for NBA awards has led to extra groupthink, which led to him not profitable the MVP final season, however may also result in those self same voters coming again to Jokic to keep away from the identical embarrassment as final postseason.

Leaps by nice younger groups normally make the leap a bit of ahead of everyone seems to be anticipating. Assume the 1994-95 Orlando Magic, or the 2011-12 OKC Thunder, or 2014-15 Golden State Warriors. Nicely, be prepared for the 2023-24 OKC Thunder to make an identical leap this 12 months. And prepare for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to get some severe MVP consideration as the most effective participant on presumably the most effective workforce within the Western Convention (they’re at present in second with an 11-4 document. SGA has the numbers (30.4 PPG, 6.3 APG, 6.1 RPG, 2.4 SPG with 54-36-93 taking pictures splits) and the killer late-game swagger that’s simple to understand. 

This Rookie of the 12 months jogs my memory of the LeBron James-Carmelo Anthony race from 2003-04. Each had been destined to be nice – LeBron was a greater total participant and prospect, however on a foul workforce; Melo was a very good scorer on a playoff workforce. LeBron in the end received the award, and rightly so, however it was an important race. Quick ahead to this season, Victor Wembanyama is in LeBron James’ scenario and Chet Holmgren is in Carmelo Anthony’s scenario (albeit even higher). This time round, nonetheless, the higher prospect goes to come back in second. Wemby has (18.8 PPG, 9.5 RPG, 2.5 APG, 2.6 BPG and 1 SPG on 43-28-81 taking pictures) and can end with extra spectacular uncooked numbers, however Chet can have much better effectivity on related sufficient numbers (17.1 PPG, 8.1 RPG, 2.5 APG, 2.3 BPG and 0.9 SPG with 56-43-88 taking pictures splits via 15 video games), plus be a key contributor for a contender. 

The Celtics at present have the NBA’s finest document (13-4) and web ranking (plus-8.5). Their beginning 5 – Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Kristaps Porzingis, Derrick White and Jrue Vacation – is the most effective within the NBA and the core gamers in that lineup are of their respective primes. And the stats again up the truth that they’re an elite unit (plus 27.7 factors per 100 possessions). These are all indicators that Boston will win 60-plus video games and end with the most effective common season document within the NBA. 

The Pacers have the quickest tempo within the league and can parlay that into the best offensive ranking per 100 possessions in NBA historical past (present document is held by the 2022-23 Kings, which had been at 119.4 factors per 100 possessions). With the most effective look forward connector within the league, Tyrese Haliburton, surrounded by flooring spacers like Buddy Hield and Myles Turner, and athletic fast-breakers like Obi Toppin and Bruce Brown, the Pacers will simply breach the 120 factors per 100 possessions mark – actually, they’re at 122.6 factors per 100 possessions via their first 16 video games. 

118 factors per 100 possession places a workforce within the top-10 all-time for offensive scores. Proper now, the Pacers (122.6), 76ers (121.5) and Hawks (119.5) are all on tempo to interrupt the present document. The Bucks are tied for the document at 119.4. After which the Mavericks (119.0), Suns (118.7) and Thunder (118.2) are all on-pace for top-10 marks. I am guessing that the Celtics (117.7) additionally find yourself above 118 factors per 100 possessions as properly. Offense is as environment friendly as doable, and the NBA is as offensively-talented because it has ever been.

In case you common 26 PPG, 12 APG and put up 50-40-90 taking pictures splits, and lead your workforce to the most effective offensive ranking in NBA historical past, which is what Tyrese Haliburton is doing proper now, then you definitely should make First-Workforce All-NBA. Fairly easy. He’ll be a part of Nikola Jokic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Joel Embiid, and Giannis Antetokounmpo. 

The Ant-Man is making his leap into superstardom this season, and he is doing it at a excessive degree on each ends of the court docket. On offense, he is averaging profession highs in PPG (26.2), RPG (5.9), APG (5.0) and all taking pictures splits (46-38-86). If that weren’t sufficient, he is additionally one of many defensive catalysts for the workforce with the most effective defensive ranking within the league, and the highest document within the Western Convention. 

The Warriors are a bottom-seven workforce within the NBA if Steph Curry is out (and doubtless league-average as at present constructed when he does play), so he higher play at the very least 70 video games – one thing he not often has been in a position to do – or else Golden State is kaput. And the Clippers are going to be in bother if any of their three stars (Kawhi Leonard, Paul George and James Harden) miss vital parts of the season – which Kawhi and PG have been vulnerable to do). 

After a stellar 2022-23 season –  one during which they’d the most effective defensive ranking and second-best web ranking within the NBA – the Cavaliers have stumbled out of the gates this season and are at present sitting at 10-9 (eighth within the East) with the Twelfth-best defensive ranking and the twentieth finest web ranking. They’ve all the items on paper, however the workforce hasn’t meshed such as you’d suppose. Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland are glorious, however they appear to be higher when the opposite would not play. Evan Mobley has plateaued a bit. Jarrett Allen continues to be struggling after the ugly playoff efficiency final season. Max Strus and Caris LeVert have been nice, however neither strikes the needle sufficient to get this workforce out of its funk.

How ironic wouldn’t it be if the 76ers lastly made it previous the second spherical of the playoffs after the James Harden fiasco this offseason? Tyrese Maxey will win the NBA’s Most Improved Participant Award. Joel Embiid win the scoring title for the third straight season whereas doing his finest Nikola Jokic impression by averaging practically seven APG. And Daryl Morey will use the property acquired from the Harden commerce to land one other impression wing like Alex Caruso or Jerami Grant. It’ll culminate within the workforce upsetting the pesky Miami Warmth, who can have as soon as once more taken out the Bucks on their strategy to an inconceivable fourth Convention Finals previously 5 seasons, on their strategy to the championship the place they are going to sq. off in opposition to… 

Hey, these are daring predictions, keep in mind. Clearly, the Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets are the clear favorites within the Western Convention as long as the most effective participant in basketball is wholesome. And groups just like the T’Wolves, Thunder and Suns all have been way more spectacular than the Lakers up to now. However…on this daring prediction actuality, I am envisioning an identical elite defensive effort by Anthony Davis and the Lakers down the stretch, and a totally wholesome LeBron James (recall, he was coping with a foot harm all postseason that robbed him of any explosiveness). As well as, Rob Pelinka makes the precise deal – unclear what that’s for the time being as a result of the Lakers are so injury-riddled, however Kyrie Irving, Jerami Grant, Alex Caruso and Malcolm Brogdon would all be preferrred suits – and LA makes a run to the title. Lots of ifs, however it’s not unimaginable!

Joel Embiid completely owns Anthony Davis, however Playoff AD is the most effective defensive participant in basketball (although he nonetheless leaves quite a bit to be desired on the offensive finish each different recreation), so this collection will come down as to if LeBron can rev the engine sufficient to duplicate the participant he was within the Bubble Finals. I imagine he nonetheless can – if LeBron James will get to a different Finals, he ain’t dropping. He’ll run all the tank empty, after which some. Actually, he’ll go so onerous that he’ll announce his retirement after the clinching recreation (and un-retire in the summertime proper earlier than the NBA Draft), giving the Lakers their second title within the LeBron-AD period…that’s…

This is the contingency…if the Thunder, who’ve 37(!!!) first-round picks between now and 2030, make an enormous transfer on the deadline – say they commerce for Mikal Bridges or Myles Turner and Buddy Hield – then they will shock the world and win the title. If any group understands the brevity of a championship window, it is the Thunder, given what occurred again in 2012. If I had been Sam Presti, I might be SGA taking part in like an MVP candidate, Chet Holmgren taking part in like a future star, Jalen Williams and the remainder of the solid all wanting nice, and I might be pushing the chips now.

The Bulls are a depressing prepare wreck of a workforce this season. They don’t have any probability of creating the playoffs and needs to be placing up a For Sale check in entrance of each participant on their roster. Severely, they do not have a single participant to construct round. Probably the most impactful participant on their workforce is not DeMar DeRozan or Zach LaVine, it is Alex Caruso, who is among the finest defenders within the league and an important connector on offense. He is on probably the greatest contracts within the league – in contrast to DeRozan, who’s a free agent subsequent summer time, or LaVine, who’s on one of many ugliest contracts within the league – and can have a bevy of contenders lining up for his companies. Search for Caruso to value someplace within the neighborhood of two unprotected picks.

The NBA is so loaded with expertise that there are at the very least a dozen, possibly extra, groups that may speak themselves into making a deep run within the playoffs and, thus, will likely be consumers on the commerce deadline. Conversely, there are at the very least eight groups that already don’t have any probability on the playoffs and will certainly be sellers. There’ll most likely be a number of extra by February too. Which means we must always have a really lively commerce deadline. Gamers like Alex Caruso, Malcolm Brogdon, Gordon Hayward, and Jordan Clarkson are on unhealthy groups and can virtually definitely be dealt. Do not be stunned if much more impactful gamers like Jerami Grant and Pascal Siakam change groups as properly. 

Whether or not it is Donovan Mitchell, Lauri Markkanen, Brandon Ingram, Zion Williamson or another person (Kyrie Irving?), you simply get the sense that some seismic commerce is on the horizon. Mitchell appears destined for an even bigger market, and the Cavs may get a significant return in the event that they dealt him this season. Markkanen is perhaps all in favour of competing for a playoff workforce, which the Jazz do not venture to be for a number of years. And everyone knows that Pelicans’ government David Griffin will not be afraid to swing for the fences when his again is in opposition to the wall (see, David Blatt’s firing). 

As long as Kevin Durant and Devin Booker are wholesome, the Suns will simply be a contender. Nonetheless, if Durant misses his customary 25-plus video games  – one thing he is accomplished in all three of his post-Achilles tear seasons – the Suns will plummet down the standings as all the burden of carrying a workforce stuffed with minimal contract gamers will fall upon Devin Booker (Bradley Beal has opted to WFH this season). Booker can deal with this burden, to an extent, however each Durant and Booker should be totally wholesome for this workforce to have any shot within the playoffs. Placing this a lot of an everyday season burden on the 2 of them will come again to chew them.

Very similar to final 12 months’s Cavs, the Magic have stunned all the NBA via the primary quarter of the season and at present sit at quantity two within the East with a 13-5 document. Just like the Cavs, the Magic are doing it with their protection (second within the NBA in defensive ranking), which has led to their having a plus-6.5 web ranking per 100 possessions (Cavs completed final season at plus-5.6). The Cavs completed fourth within the East final season with 51 wins, and that looks like a risk for the Magic if they will proceed to defend like they’ve up to now. Nonetheless, within the playoffs, their youth and inexperience will present, and so they’ll have an early exit from the postseason, however loads to be exited about transferring ahead.

The Pistons are within the midst of a horrific dropping streak (16 video games in a row on the time of this slideshow), and it is about to get quite a bit worse. They began the season 2-1, however have misplaced each recreation since. Monty Williams appears to be the improper coach for this extraordinarily uncooked, extraordinarily unbalanced roster. That stated, I count on sufficient enchancment from the likes of Cade Cunningham, Jalen Duren and Ausar Thompson that this workforce will finally begin taking part in semi-competitive basketball by the final quarter of the season. The Wizards (3-15), alternatively, would not have any expertise and can most likely commerce their solely first rate gamers this deadline. They’ll end with the NBA’s worst document when it is all stated and accomplished.

Do you know that De’Aaron Fox is averaging 30.7 PPG proper now? He is solely appeared in 12 video games up to now, however that might at present put him in fourth place and just one.3 PPG behind Joel Embiid for first. Fox is clearly the Kings finest participant this season, and is the quickest participant in all of basketball, so he can get wherever he needs on the court docket. He is lastly beginning to develop a constant three-point stroke (36.3 p.c), and I believe he’ll be in loads of shootouts this season, so he is my decide to steer the league in scoring.

As you have most likely seen, there hasn’t been a lot point out of the Mavericks on this slideshow although Luke Doncic seems to be spectacular via his first 17 video games (31.1 PPG, 8 RPG, 7.9 APG with 49-39-77 taking pictures splits) and has the workforce out to a strong 11-6 begin. Sadly, Dallas’ protection, which is ranked twenty third, will likely be their undoing. The workforce will make the playoffs, however an early exit will push Doncic to the brink and, within the wake of Mark Cuban promoting his majority stake of the workforce, he’ll request a commerce and set off the craziest bidding warfare for a celebrity the participant the NBA has ever seen.