MicroStrategy’s Debt Dilemma: A Balancing Act Between Bonds and Bitcoin

The conduct of MicroStrategy in borrowing cash to buy Bitcoin has stirred fairly an issue. Adam Cochran, a accomplice at CEHV and a identified determine within the crypto area, just lately dissected the precarious monetary place of MicroStrategy, an organization headed by Michael Saylor and identified for its giant Bitcoin holdings. Cochran outlined the corporate’s obligations concerning its 2025 and 2028 convertible notes in a sequence of tweets on October 9, 2023. The notes have pull ahead provisions on liquidity, permitting them to be moved to 2025. With a ahead of $120 million in income towards prices of roughly $188 million, MicroStrategy nonetheless faces $36 million in coupon funds on its debt.

MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin Accumulation

MicroStrategy has been aggressively accumulating Bitcoin, underneath the stewardship of its CEO, Michael Saylor. As of September 24, 2023, the agency holds a whopping 158,245 bitcoins, acquired at a median value of $29,582 per bitcoin, amounting to a complete funding of roughly $4.68 billion​1​. The acquisition spree commenced on August 11, 2020, and has seen notable purchases together with 29,646 bitcoins for $650 million on December 21, 2020, and 19,452 bitcoins for $1.026 billion on February 24, 2021. In 2023 alone, MicroStrategy acquired 17,778 bitcoins for a complete of $494.3 million, as per the acquisition data​1​.

Convertible Observe Conundrum

Cochran highlighted the potential fallout if MicroStrategy fails to pay the convertible notice for 2025, which might convert at a $725 million worth towards the corporate fairness, inflicting round 15% dilution for holders. The choice might be refinancing, however the final issuance had a 6.25% yield earlier than the mountaineering cycle, and Cochran estimates refinancing may drive yields to a staggering 9%-11%.

The Bitcoin Balancing Act

He additional famous that Saylor has just a few choices to handle this debt. One is leveraging the corporate’s Bitcoin holdings earlier than the yr finish, which might exclude it from liquidity calculations and produce $2.8 billion in conversions. Alternatively, they might let the 2025 bonds convert for a 15% dilution, refinance to double-digit debt yields, or promote a portion of their Bitcoin to cowl the debt.

Implications on Bitcoin

Promoting Bitcoin, nevertheless, may erode confidence and result in extra impairment loss, particularly if Bitcoin’s value dips under $20k. Cochran means that such a transfer may probably result in MicroStrategy’s downfall, which he believes could be bullish for the markets. It’s because a focus of property, notably in a publicly traded entity, can mute upsides, and a short-term wipe may usher in long-term features.

In a follow-up question by David Miranda, Cochran famous that though company debt refinancing often begins a yr upfront, Saylor’s outlier standing may push negotiations to the final minute, making the yr finish an important interval for MicroStrategy’s monetary methods heading into 2024.

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