The Toronto Maple Leafs are in their own heads

The Toronto Maple Leafs fixated on the incorrect issues? I do know, it’s a loopy time and we’ll must get by means of it collectively, with mind and a savoir-faire.

A fast look on the NHL standings wouldn’t sign that there’s an excessive amount of incorrect with the Leafs. They’re solely two factors behind the Panthers for the final automated playoff spot within the Atlantic, three factors behind Detroit, having performed fewer video games than each. However forged your gaze extra to the proper on the standings web page and also you’ll see that Toronto has solely 5 wins in regulation, tied with Chicago, Montreal, and Seattle for the least quantity in the entire of the NHL. If a staff is tied with the Hawks, Habs and Kraken in absolutely anything, one thing positively smells humorous within the fridge.

The Leafs have been capable of preserve contact with the remainder of the Atlantic by means of three wins in additional time and one other 4 in a shootout. However profitable video games in varied gimmicks doesn’t communicate to a wholesome general machine and the Leafs are positively making bizarre clanking noises, springing leaks from odd spots, and there are lights on all around the dashboard.

The Leafs aren’t doing something notably effectively. They’re 14th in targets per sport, twelfth in targets towards per sport, their energy play is twelfth and their penalty kill is twenty first. Their metrics straight up blow, twentieth in each attempts-share and expected-goals share. This simply isn’t a very good even-strength staff proper now.

The primary drawback is what it’s all the time been and it’s that the Leafs’ protection isn’t superb. The Leafs cognoscenti would say the Leafs are adjusting to a brand new system, trying to separate how their high six forwards and backside six forwards play. The previous doing its normal puck-possession, fireworks show and the latter enjoying a extra conservative, straight-line sport with extra dump-and-chase grinding. The issue is that the Leafs’ blue line isn’t constructed for both, if that’s even what they’re doing.

The highest pairing of Morgan “Rag It” Rielly and TJ Brodie is just not top-pairing worthy for a staff that has Cup aspirations. They’ve been principally roasted at even-strength and that’s whereas enjoying most of their shifts behind Auston Matthews. The Leafs are giving up an assload of probabilities off the frenzy, as a result of none of their defensemen can step up and lower off probabilities earlier than they grow to be probabilities earlier than the crimson line. John Klingberg has already been instructed he’s damage for the season to keep away from telling him he’s absolute gunk at this level in his profession. However that’s not going to avoid wasting Mark Giordano and Jake McCabe, who’re additionally leaden-footed.

There’s a cause the Leafs have been sizzling on the path of each Nikita Zadorov earlier than he was traded to Vancouver, and Chris Tanev, whom the Flames haven’t determined to punt overboard but. They want a blue-line overhaul, as a result of proper now their two high traces mainly have to hold the puck all 200 toes to bail out their buried d-men. Zadorov would have been a hilarious catastrophe, as he’s not that cellular, and no matter mobility he has has satisfied him he’s Bobby Orr mixed with Scott Stevens and he cowboys all around the ice in search of massive hits or rushes that aren’t there, irrespective of the place it leaves his 4 teammates. Tanev is extra of what they want, a puck-moving d-man, or no less than he was 5 years in the past.

Regardless of the directions for the underside two traces have been, it’s not working, as they’re getting drowned on a nightly foundation. That may be excused for David Kampf’s line, as a result of that’s what David Kampf does: Takes the dungeon shifts so nobody else has to. However the third line of Max Domi, Calle Jarnkrok and Nicholas Robertson isn’t actually doing something. It’s additionally not clear what the Leafs need out of this line.

That the Leafs are right here is as a result of these 4 forwards that the followers wish to tie to a chair tied to a steam engine each spring are nonetheless enjoying at a excessive stage –William Nylander, Matthews, Mitch Marner, and John Tavares – and may get them out of overtimes and shootouts, and get them by means of 60 minutes to no less than seize a degree. That doesn’t imply everybody gained’t need them ritually killed come April.

The Leafs have made a stink about already making an attempt to play a extra playoff model within the common season in order that they’ll play it higher when the playoffs arrive. One, you must make the playoffs first, and two, the one playoff model the Leafs have to play is theirs, simply higher than anybody else. However they’ll’t appropriately establish it, matching their Ferrari high six with an El Camino protection. The Leafs’ playoff failures have frazzled their brains a lot they now appear caught in between on what it’s they wish to be. They nonetheless wish to play quick and expert, but in addition gritty. They wish to possess the puck, however in addition they wish to go and get it in deep as effectively. They wish to be slick, they wish to be onerous to play towards, they need this, they need that. When a staff tries to be every part, it normally finally ends up being nothing.

Guess which one the Leafs are extra headed to thus far this season?

Comply with Sam on Twitter @Felsgate and on Bluesky @felsgate.bsky.social